Suchergebnisse

INTRODUCTION: Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems - from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. METHODS: We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. RESULTS: The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14-16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size of 45 experts (median of the rank correlation coefficient = 0.95; IQR 0.94-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that the collective opinion of an expert group on a large number of research ideas, expressed through categorical variables (Yes/No/Not Sure/Don't know), stabilises relatively quickly in terms of identifying the ideas that have most support. In the exercise we found a high degree of reproducibility of the identified research priorities was achieved with as few as 45-55 experts.

AbstractDespite significant progress in improving access to safe water globally, inadequate access remains a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries. We collected data on the bacterial quality of stored drinking water and the quantity of water used domestically from 416 households in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo. An indicator of tap water availability was constructed using invoices from 3685 georeferenced piped water connections. We examined how well this indicator predicts the probability that a household's stored drinking water is contaminated with Escherichia coli, and the total amount of water used at home daily, accounting for distance from alternative surface water sources. Probability of drinking water contamination is predicted with good discrimination overall, and very good discrimination for poorer households. More than 80% of the households are predicted to store contaminated drinking water in areas closest to the rivers and with the worst tap water service, where river water is also the most likely reported source of drinking water. A model including household composition predicts nearly two-thirds of the variability in the reported quantity of water used daily at home. Households located near surface water and with a poor tap water service indicator are more likely to use water directly at the source. Our results provide valuable information that supports an ongoing large-scale investment in water supply infrastructure in Uvira designed to reduce the high burden of cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases. This approach may be useful in other urban settings with limited water supply access.

Hysterectomy is a leading reason for use of health insurance amongst low-income women in India, but there are limited population-level data available to inform policy. This paper reports on the findings of a mixed-methods study to estimate incidence and identify predictors of hysterectomy in a low-income setting in Gujarat, India. The estimated incidence of hysterectomy, 20.7/1000 woman- years (95% CI: 14.0, 30.8), was considerably higher than reported from other countries, at a relatively low mean age of 36 years. There was strong evidence that among women of reproductive age, those with lower income and at least two children underwent hysterectomy at higher rates. Nearly two-thirds of women undergoing hysterectomy utilized private hospitals, while the remainder used government or other non-profit facilities. Qualitative research suggested that weak sexual and reproductive health services, a widespread perception that the post-reproductive uterus is dispensable and lack of knowledge of side effects have resulted in the normalization of hysterectomy. Hysterectomy appears to be promoted as a first or second-line treatment for menstrual and gynaecological disorders that are actually amenable to less invasive procedures. Most women sought at least two medical opinions prior to hysterectomy, but both public and private providers lacked equipment, skills and motivation to offer alternatives. Profit and training benefits also appeared to play a role in some providers' behaviour. Although women with insecure employment underwent the procedure knowing the financial and physical implications of undergoing a major surgery, the future health and work security afforded by hysterectomy appeared to them to outweigh risks. Findings suggest that sterilization may be associated with an increased risk of hysterectomy, potentially through biological or attitudinal links. Health policy interventions require improved access to sexual and reproductive health services and health education, along with surveillance and medical audits to ...

Hysterectomy is a leading reason for use of health insurance amongst low-income women in India, but there are limited population-level data available to inform policy. This paper reports on the findings of a mixed-methods study to estimate incidence and identify predictors of hysterectomy in a low-income setting in Gujarat, India. The estimated incidence of hysterectomy, 20.7/1000 woman- years (95% CI: 14.0, 30.8), was considerably higher than reported from other countries, at a relatively low mean age of 36 years. There was strong evidence that among women of reproductive age, those with lower income and at least two children underwent hysterectomy at higher rates. Nearly two-thirds of women undergoing hysterectomy utilized private hospitals, while the remainder used government or other non-profit facilities. Qualitative research suggested that weak sexual and reproductive health services, a widespread perception that the post-reproductive uterus is dispensable and lack of knowledge of side effects have resulted in the normalization of hysterectomy. Hysterectomy appears to be promoted as a first or second-line treatment for menstrual and gynaecological disorders that are actually amenable to less invasive procedures. Most women sought at least two medical opinions prior to hysterectomy, but both public and private providers lacked equipment, skills and motivation to offer alternatives. Profit and training benefits also appeared to play a role in some providers' behaviour. Although women with insecure employment underwent the procedure knowing the financial and physical implications of undergoing a major surgery, the future health and work security afforded by hysterectomy appeared to them to outweigh risks. Findings suggest that sterilization may be associated with an increased risk of hysterectomy, potentially through biological or attitudinal links. Health policy interventions require improved access to sexual and reproductive health services and health education, along with surveillance and medical audits to promote high-quality choices for women through the life cycle.

INTRODUCTION: Cholera is endemic in the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1978, and Uvira in South-Kivu has been reporting suspected cholera cases nearly every week for over a decade. The clinical case definition for suspected cholera is relatively non-specific, and cases are rarely confirmed by laboratory methods, especially in endemic settings. This may lead to over-estimation of cholera cases and limit effective public health responses. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between April 2016 and November 2017, 69% of the 2,059 patients admitted to the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC) were tested for cholera with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Of those admitted as suspected cholera cases, only 40% tested positive for cholera, equivalent to an estimated annual incidence of suspected/confirmed cholera in Uvira of 43.8 and 16.3 cases per 10,000 inhabitants respectively. A multivariable logistic regression indicates that boys aged 2 to 4 years, girls aged 5 to 15 years and adult men are respectively 1.9, 2.1 and 1.8 times more likely to test positive than adult women. On the contrary, boys under 2 are 10 times less likely to test positive. The odds of testing positive also increase as weekly admissions to the CTC rise, with up to a 5-fold increase observed during the weeks with the highest numbers of admissions compared to the lowest ones. Other predictors of cholera confirmation include duration of stay at the CTC, clinical outcome of admission, lower weekly rainfall and area of residence in Uvira, with the northern part of town having the highest confirmation rate. CONCLUSION: Cholera is an on-going public health problem in Uvira but the majority of suspected cases admitted to the CTC were found to be negative for cholera after RDT testing. These findings may have important implications for cholera control strategies in favour of interventions that address cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases alike.

OBJECTIVE: This pilot study investigated the feasibility of delivering a package of community-based interventions for improving perinatal care using lady health workers (LHWs) and traditional birth attendants (Dais) in rural Pakistan. METHODS: The intervention was implemented in four of eight village clusters (315 villages, total population 138,600), while four served as a comparison group. The LHWs in intervention clusters received additional training focused on essential maternal and newborn care, conducted community education group sessions, and were encouraged to link up with local Dais. The intervention was delivered within the regular government LHW programme and was supported by the creation of voluntary community health committees. FINDINGS: In intervention villages, there were significant reductions from baseline in stillbirth (from 65.9 to 43.1 per 1000 births, P < 0.001) and neonatal mortality rates (from 57.3 to 41.3 per 1000 live births, P < 0.001). The proportion of deliveries conducted by skilled attendants at public sector facilities also increased, from 18% at baseline to 30%, while the proportion of home births decreased from 79% to 65%. A household survey indicated a higher frequency of key behaviours (e.g. early and exclusive breastfeeding, delayed bathing and cord care) in intervention villages. CONCLUSION: The improved stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates observed indicate that community health workers (i.e. LHWs and Dais) can be effective in implementing a community and outreach package that leads to improved home care practices by families, increased care-seeking behaviour and greater utilization of skilled care providers. These preliminary observations require confirmation in an adequately powered trial.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis can be effectively controlled as a public health problem by annual mass drug administration of ivermectin, but it was not known if ivermectin treatment in the long term would be able to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis infection and interruption of transmission in endemic areas in Africa. A recent study in Mali and Senegal has provided the first evidence of elimination after 15-17 years of treatment. Following this finding, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has started a systematic evaluation of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment projects and the feasibility of elimination in APOC supported countries. This paper reports the first results for two onchocerciasis foci in Kaduna, Nigeria. METHODS: In 2008, an epidemiological evaluation using skin snip parasitological diagnostic method was carried out in two onchocerciasis foci, in Birnin Gwari Local Government Area (LGA), and in the Kauru and Lere LGAs of Kaduna State, Nigeria. The survey was undertaken in 26 villages and examined 3,703 people above the age of one year. The result was compared with the baseline survey undertaken in 1987. RESULTS: The communities had received 15 to 17 years of ivermectin treatment with more than 75% reported coverage. For each surveyed community, comparable baseline data were available. Before treatment, the community prevalence of O. volvulus microfilaria in the skin ranged from 23.1% to 84.9%, with a median prevalence of 52.0%. After 15 to 17 years of treatment, the prevalence had fallen to 0% in all communities and all 3,703 examined individuals were skin snip negative. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the surveys confirm the finding in Senegal and Mali that ivermectin treatment alone can eliminate onchocerciasis infection and probably disease transmission in endemic foci in Africa. It is the first of such evidence for the APOC operational area.

INTRODUCTION: Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Cholera alone is estimated to cause 95,000 deaths per year, most of which occur in endemic settings with inadequate water access. Whilst a global strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030 calls for investment in improved drinking water services, there is limited rigorous evidence for the impact of improved water supply on endemic cholera transmission in low-income urban settings. Our protocol is designed to deliver a pragmatic health impact evaluation of a large-scale water supply intervention in Uvira (Democratic Republic of the Congo), a cholera transmission hotspot. METHODS/DESIGN: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial (SW-CRT) was designed to evaluate the impact of a large-scale drinking water supply intervention on cholera incidence among the 280,000 inhabitants of Uvira. The city was divided into 16 clusters, where new community and household taps will be installed following a randomised sequence over a transition period of up to 8 weeks in each cluster. The primary trial outcomes are the monthly incidence of "confirmed" cholera cases (patients testing positive by rapid detection kit) and of "suspected" cholera cases (patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre). Concurrent process and economic evaluations will provide further information on the context, costs, and efficiency of the intervention. DISCUSSION: In this protocol, we describe a pragmatic approach to conducting rigorous research to assess the impacts of a complex water supply intervention on severe diarrhoeal disease and cholera in an unstable, low-resource setting representative of cholera-affected areas. In particular, we discuss a series of pre-identified risks and linked mitigation strategies as well as the value of combining different data collection methods and preparation of multiple analysis scenarios to account for possible deviations from the protocol. The study described here has the potential to provide robust evidence to support more effective cholera control in challenging, high-burden settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered on clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT02928341 , 10th October 2016) and has received ethics approval from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (8913, 10603) and from the Ethics Committee from the School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (ESP/CE/088/2015).

INTRODUCTION: Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Cholera alone is estimated to cause 95,000 deaths per year, most of which occur in endemic settings with inadequate water access. Whilst a global strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030 calls for investment in improved drinking water services, there is limited rigorous evidence for the impact of improved water supply on endemic cholera transmission in low-income urban settings. Our protocol is designed to deliver a pragmatic health impact evaluation of a large-scale water supply intervention in Uvira (Democratic Republic of the Congo), a cholera transmission hotspot. METHODS/DESIGN: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial (SW-CRT) was designed to evaluate the impact of a large-scale drinking water supply intervention on cholera incidence among the 280,000 inhabitants of Uvira. The city was divided into 16 clusters, where new community and household taps will be installed following a randomised sequence over a transition period of up to 8 weeks in each cluster. The primary trial outcomes are the monthly incidence of "confirmed" cholera cases (patients testing positive by rapid detection kit) and of "suspected" cholera cases (patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre). Concurrent process and economic evaluations will provide further information on the context, costs, and efficiency of the intervention. DISCUSSION: In this protocol, we describe a pragmatic approach to conducting rigorous research to assess the impacts of a complex water supply intervention on severe diarrhoeal disease and cholera in an unstable, low-resource setting representative of cholera-affected areas. In particular, we discuss a series of pre-identified risks and linked mitigation strategies as well as the value of combining different data collection methods and preparation of multiple analysis scenarios to account for possible deviations from the protocol. The study described here has the potential to provide robust evidence to support more ...

BACKGROUND: Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life-compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990-and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa's NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9). CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved.

BACKGROUND: Household surveys remain important sources of maternal and child health data, but until now, standard surveys such as Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) have not collected information on maternity care for women who have experienced a stillbirth. Thus, nationally representative data are lacking to inform programmes to address the millions of stillbirths which occur annually. METHODS: The EN-INDEPTH population-based survey of women of reproductive age was undertaken in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau and Uganda (2017–2018). All women answered a full birth history with additional questions on pregnancy losses (FBH+) or full pregnancy history (FPH). A sub-sample, including all women reporting a recent stillbirth or neonatal death, was asked additional maternity care questions. These were evaluated using descriptive measures. Associations between stillbirth and maternal socio-demographic characteristics, babies' characteristics and maternity care use were assessed using a weighted logistic regression model for women in the FBH+ group. RESULTS: A total of 15,591 women reporting a birth since 1 January 2012 answered maternity care questions. Completeness was very high (> 99%), with similar proportions of responses for both live and stillbirths. Amongst the 14,991 births in the FBH+ group, poorer wealth status, higher parity, large perceived baby size-at-birth, preterm or post-term birth, birth in a government hospital compared to other locations and vaginal birth were associated with increased risk of stillbirth after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Regarding association with reported postnatal care, women with a stillbirth were more likely to report hospital stays of > 1 day. However, women with a stillbirth were less likely to report having received a postnatal check compared to those with a live birth. CONCLUSIONS: Women who had experienced stillbirth were able to respond to questions about pregnancy and birth, and ...